First in a series interpreting the results of Iowa’s 2024 state and federal elections.

Two years ago, Iowa appeared to be on a different trajectory than much of the country. As Democrats won many of the midterm election races, including in our Midwestern neighboring states, Iowa experienced yet another “red wave.” Six of the last eight general elections in Iowa have been GOP landslides.

On November 5, Donald Trump improved on his 2020 performance almost across the board: in blue states like New York and New Jersey, swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, and red states like Texas and Iowa. He gained in rural counties, suburban counties, and urban centers, in states where both presidential candidates campaigned intensely, and in states where there was no “ground game” or barrage of political advertising. He gained among almost every demographic group except for college-educated women. He may become the first Republican presidential candidate to win the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and only the second GOP nominee to win the popular vote since 1988.

The Trump resurgence isn’t unique to Iowa, or even the U.S.—grievance politics has been winning elections all over the world lately.

But that’s no comfort to Democrats here, who probably won’t win back any Congressional districts and suffered more losses among their already small contingents in the Iowa House and Senate.

Democrats go into the November 5 election with the smallest Iowa House contingent they’ve had in five decades. But even though control of the chamber is not in question, this year’s state House races matter.

Despite having a 64 to 36 advantage for the past two years, Republicans struggled to find 51 votes for some of their controversial legislation, such as Governor Kim Reynolds’ plan to overhaul the Area Education Agencies. So chipping away at the GOP majority could help limit further damage to public education or civil rights.

Conversely, a net loss of Democratic-held seats would allow the majority to govern with even fewer constraints.

This post highlights nine Iowa House seats most at risk of flipping, plus seven districts that could be competitive, or where the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. I will update later with unofficial results from all of these races.

Arnold Garson is a semi-retired journalist and executive who worked for 46 years in the newspaper industry, including almost 20 years at The Des Moines Register. He writes the Substack newsletter Second Thoughts, where this article first appeared.

Presidential endorsements in American newspapers had a good run—more than 150 years—and America is the better for it.

Their disappearance, beginning five to ten years ago and mushrooming this year, has been a product of changing times for newspapers and newspaper ownership, and the increasing divisiveness in our society. Though explainable, it is sad and unfortunate. 

It is worth remembering that newspapers got into the endorsement business because the owners and editors knew an informed electorate would be advantageous to the country as well as the newspaper industry.  

DSM Lawyer is an attorney in central Iowa.

When will we stop politicizing the judiciary? I practice in Polk County District Court Associate Judge Rachael Seymour’s courtroom all the time and have thoughts about why she received low marks in the Iowa State Bar Association’s judicial performance review.

Yes, hearings in her courtroom tend not to run on time, and she can take a long time to issue a written ruling. Why? Because she’s extremely thorough when we’re in court, and she gives a complete verbal ruling while you’re there. She wants to have all the possible information before making decisions that affect families, and she takes time to review all of the written evidence as well as review her notes prior to finalizing the written ruling.

Even the Iowa Court of Appeals recently noted the thoroughness of one of her rulings. This is a good thing, because it ensures everyone has all the same information rather than relying on our own individual recollections of what happened. I generally find that if I just pad my own schedule a little there’s no issue.

Herb Strentz was dean of the Drake School of Journalism from 1975 to 1988 and professor there until retirement in 2004. He was executive secretary of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council from its founding in 1976 to 2000.

Out of desperation, as a fearful election day looms, let’s grasp at some straws to try to make sense of what we’ve been through and, even worse, what might be ahead.

For example, some political campaigns have had musical themes.

Few, if any Bleeding Heartland readers were around in 1932 to sing along with “Happy Days Are Here Again,” the theme of Franklin’s D. Roosevelt’s anti-Depression campaign against President Herbert Hoover.

More of us may recall Marilyn Maye’s catchy version of “Step to the Rear (and Let a Winner Lead the Way)” sung on behalf of Governor Robert D. Ray. (Warning: Before listening to Ms Maye, be prepared for tears if you are subject to emotional responses in recalling the more congenial, bipartisan days of the Ray administrations, when Democrats generally accepted letting Ray “lead the way.”)

Sami Scheetz represents Iowa House district 78, covering part of Cedar Rapids.

When we brought our daughter home from the hospital a few months ago, and I watched our baby swaddled in her bassinet, sleeping peacefully, I couldn’t help but think about the future my wife and I are building for her. Now, with the November 5 election a few days away, I wonder: What kind of place will Iowa be for families today and for generations to come?

When my daughter grows up, will she find an Iowa that is as inclusive, welcoming, and safe as the one I inherited—or will she find an Iowa neither of us recognize, a place where people feel they have little in common with their government, and their voices are not heard?

Andy Johnson works in the locally-owned clean energy transition, and farms with his wife and three daughters in rural Winneshiek County, northeast Iowa.

Is Kamala Harris angry? I sure as hell hope so, and I wish she’d say so.

The angry American right does its darnedest to paint her as an angry Black woman. This angry white male Iowa farmer wishes she’d get mad, in a good way.

Here is what I imagine she might say.

“Fellow Americans, I’m angry!

“I’m angry that so many of us blindly picture our two candidates for national leadership as either an angry white man or an angry black woman. We’re better than that.

Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, most recently here. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on Twitter @dcg1114.

In November of last year, I asked, “Are Republicans really gaining among Black voters?” Since then, political reporters have written article after article on the subject. A New York Times story about a recent poll declared, “Black voters drift from Democrats, Imperiling Harris’s Bid.” This week, Newsweek wrote about a different poll using the headline, “Donald Trump sees surge in support among Black Virginia Voters.”

Before I get the data, I want to make a serious point. These stories insulate Trump from the plain meaning of his language. See, he tells his supporters, I am not a racist: Black people are voting for me. So, while this question may seem like something only data nerds should care about, media coverage of the African-American vote has very real consequences for the political conversation in this country.

Henry Jay Karp is the Rabbi Emeritus of Temple Emanuel in Davenport, Iowa, which he served from 1985 to 2017. He is the co-founder and co-convener of One Human Family QCA, a social justice organization.

In 1990, Michael Godwin observed a phenomenon on internet and proposed a concept known as “Godwin’s Law of Nazi Analogies.” It stated, “As an online discussion continues, the probability of a reference or comparison to Hitler or Nazis approaches one.” Godwin’s law quickly spread to all forms of conversations and debates on hot-button issues.

Folks like me, who did not grasp the meaning of the phrase “approaches one,” have explained it as either “you know the discussion has gone on too long” or “that thread is over and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically lost whatever argument was in progress.” As a writer in the Guardian once reframed it, “The longer an argument runs, the greater the likelihood Hitler gets mentioned.”

The point of this rule is that Nazi analogies are over the top. They are a kind of hyperbole that trivializes an argument, using reckless and thoughtless comparisons to win.

Diane Porter of Fairfield first published this post on My Gaia, an email newsletter “about getting to know nature” and “giving her a helping hand in our own backyards.” Diane also maintains the Birdwatching Dot Com website and bird blog.

If I indulge my fantasy, I imagine asters as sentient beings, each with its own personality. If that were the case, then Willow Asters would be aristocrats, with their subtle lavender petals, slender leaves, and graceful poses.

If she were a lady, she would host gracious, elegant parties by a lake. Suitors would long for her attention.

There are indeed beings who visit her every hour of the day. She is always attended by bees, butterflies, and myriad other insects.

Bruce Lear lives in Sioux City and has been connected to Iowa’s public schools for 38 years. He taught for eleven years and represented educators as an Iowa State Education Association regional director for 27 years until retiring. He can be reached at BruceLear2419@gmail.com   

Before malls became teen hang outs, there were drive-in theaters. In the 1970s, they attracted teens and were a place to dream about bench seat heaven with a date. After all, they were known as “passion pits.”

The crowd at the local “passion pit” didn’t really care about deep plot lines and moving themes. When you pulled into a spot with a date, you were showing your world, you were stepping out. There were always a few families, but the place was filled with teens.

Movie makers knew what their audience craved, and they fed them. You could watch three movies in one night, and they were the weirdest, wildest horror films ever made.

This post has been updated with the final pre-election campaign finance disclosures and absentee ballot totals as of November 2. Original post follows.

Republicans currently hold 34 Iowa Senate seats—the largest GOP contingent in that chamber since 1973. Democrats are not realistically contending to regain the Senate majority in November. So why pay any attention to these legislative races?

Although the most competitive state Senate races won’t determine control of the chamber, they could reveal a lot about each party’s strengths with certain kinds of voters. A good night for Republicans would indicate that the Trump-era realignment has moved further into Iowa’s former blue regions. A good night for Democrats could pull the GOP below the two-thirds threshold, which has allowed Senate Republicans to confirm all of Governor Kim Reynolds’ nominees without any support from the minority party.

This post highlights four state Senate districts at most risk of flipping, and another seven districts where even without a big investment by Democrats or Republicans, the results could shed light on broader political trends in Iowa. A forthcoming article will cover state House races to watch in 2024.

Randy Evans is executive director of the Iowa Freedom of Information Council, a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that promotes openness and transparency in Iowa’s state and local governments. He can be reached at DMRevans2810@gmail.com. 

It’s a challenge, but not impossible, to find topics on which Republicans and Democrats share the same view these days. Here’s one: election day means we can all celebrate the end of those infernal television commercials. 

My tolerance for these ads has never been high. One reason is the way their assertions oversimplify the pluses (or the minuses) of one candidate’s or the other’s stand on some issue.

It is not really a surprise, however, because politicians have long claimed they will solve some problem or their opponent is to blame for that problem.

Ruth Sheffield is a pseudonym for a native Midwesterner, public school educator, mother of three, and passionate defender of democracy for all.

All elections are important. This election feels even more important. The stark contrast between the two presidential candidates and the closeness of the polls leaves many questions unanswered.

Gerald Ott of Ankeny was a high school English teacher and for 30 years a school improvement consultant for the Iowa State Education Association.

In the time before the election, I’ve become a TV junkie. So, I did see a clip of Donald Trump trying to win votes in Pennsylvania by telling penis jokes. It shows how low he and his applauding fans can go.

Arnold Palmer’s daughter told ABC News Donald Trump had disrespected her late father’s memory by fawning over the size of the golf champion’s penis. There’ll probably be a cross burned in their front yard.

It’s now nine days until voters decide the fate of the nation and possibly the whole world. I’m on pins and needles. Anxious, and frankly, scared.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column.

Pundits are fond of saying that elections are about the economy, and people’s relationship to it. “It’s the economy, stupid” and all that. It may be true—but there’s certainly evidence to the contrary.

Look no further than the reaction to Donald Trump’s tariff proposals from Iowans whose livelihoods depend on the agriculture sector.

Maybe the more accurate comment would be “What reaction?”

Charles Bruner was a state legislator from 1978 through 1990 and ran his campaigns as an advocate for children and families, turning his Senate district blue after two decades of Republican representation. More resources on the Kamala Harris care agenda for children are available on the Harris for Kids website.

The image above is a refrigerator magnet I created for this election. I served in the Iowa legislature from 1978 to 1990, which were “kinder and gentler” times.

Molly Ivins has said that “if the state legislature didn’t have its share of fools, it wouldn’t be a truly representative body.” Yet she also said that democracy works because there are enough decent people elected who take the time to listen and learn and act diligently to try to do what is in the public interest. Moreover, they earn the respect of their less-diligent peers and influence them. They may not always be right, but they are right-thinking and open enough to prevail.

One of the most heartening things I have heard throughout this election season is Tim Walz’s interview with Jon Stewart on the Daily Show. It’s worth watching in full.

Marty Ryan previously published a version of this essay in the November 2024 issue of the Prairie Progressive.

Campaign strategist Jim Carville coined the phrase “[It’s] the economy, stupid” back in 1992 when he worked on Bill Clinton’s first presidential campaign. That phrase “was directed at the campaign’s workers and intended as one of three messages for them to focus on.”

Evidently, the intent, if not the quote, has come back to the 2024 campaign. U.S. Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks has been insisting in one of her campaign’s television commercials that “we gotta bring these prices down.” Good luck!

Bernie Scolaro is a retired school counselor, a past president of the Sioux City Education Association, and former Sioux City school board member.

I would park around the corner and wait until there was no traffic, no sign of people, before getting out and swiftly entering the bar in Sioux City, Iowa. It was the 1980s, and entering and leaving Three Cheers (the only gay bar in town) without being noticed was always a challenge. I felt the stigma of having to hide who I was, deny myself, not knowing who would approve or disapprove, or what the backlash might be if I were exposed.

At some point in my life, I came to a crossroads. I realized not only that I had to be true to myself, but also that I needed to let others know and accept me. While took too long, I eventually realized that I had another responsibility as well: to show others it’s okay if you are gay and love whom you love. I realized that being open helped others accept themselves and/or their family members who were struggling with their identity.

Earlier this week, I went to dinner. I was wearing RAYGUN’s “Iowa for Kamala” t-shirt while my partner wore RAYGUN’s “Mind your own damn business” t-shirt. 

Kevin Virgil made waves in August when he urged supporters of his GOP primary campaign to vote for Democrat Ryan Melton in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. But when the conservative Republican cast his own general election ballot, he wrote in his own name for Congress.

Virgil had called on voters to shock the Republican establishment by supporting Donald Trump for president and Melton in the IA-04 race. He explained in August that while he disagreed with the Democrat on many issues, “the only way that our so-called leadership is going to get the message is if ‘we the people’ demonstrate that we are no longer willing to tolerate bad candidates.” He stood by that position even as Iowa GOP leaders circled the wagons around U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra, the two-term incumbent who defeated Virgil in the primary.

But on October 24, Virgil announced in Facebook and X/Twitter posts, “I will be voting later today and will write my own name in on the congressional ballot.” He confirmed to Bleeding Heartland that he did so at the O’Brien County elections office.