Todd Dorman’s column on the Iowa Family Policy Center’s endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats included this observation:
Vander Plaats is being touted as the next Mike Huckabee, a religious conservative who won Iowa’s 2008 presidential caucuses.
But Huckabee took just over 40,000 votes on caucus night. It will take more than 500,000 to become governor.
In the 2006 general election, about 1.05 million Iowans cast votes for governor, but the primary electorate is much smaller. Only about 148,000 Iowans voted in the hard-fought Democratic gubernatorial primary of 2006 (pdf file). Approximately 199,000 Iowans voted in the three-way GOP primary of 2002.
The number of registered Republicans in Iowa has declined since then, but a lot of independents and even some Democrats might cross over to vote in this year’s GOP primary for governor. I’m going to assume that with the Republican base as energized as they are, turnout will exceed 200,000 this June. Contested Republican primaries in the second and third Congressional districts should drive up turnout in central and eastern Iowa as well.
So, how many votes would Vander Plaats or Terry Branstad need to win the primary? That depends in part on whether State Representatives Chris Rants and Rod Roberts can get any traction in the race. Rants says he is in the governor’s race for the duration, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Roberts run for his Iowa House seat instead of for governor. We haven’t seen any public polls of the Republican primary since the summer. I am going to assume that even if Rants and Roberts remain on the ballot for governor, lack of money and institutional support will hold their combined vote to at most 10 percent.
It’s worth noting that many people were surprised the under-funded Ed Fallon managed 26 percent in the 2006 Democratic primary, but in that race Fallon appealed to a distinct niche in the party. I don’t see Rants or Roberts exceeding expectations unless they have some standout performances in debates, and/or one of the front-runners stumbles.
I’m going to assume that the winner of the Republican primary will need at least 100,000 votes statewide on June 5. Branstad has an edge because so many Iowa Republicans in every county have voted for him before. Vander Plaats received about 63,000 votes in the 2002 primary, when he finished a close third behind Doug Gross and Steve Sukup. As you can see from this map, he did best in northwest Iowa. Rants can hurt Vander Plaats here because he is also from Sioux City. Then again, Vander Plaats campaigned statewide as the lieutenant governor nominee in 2006 and has been the most active campaigner this cycle.
What do you think, Bleeding Heartland readers? How many votes will it take to win the chance to face Governor Chet Culver in the general?
2 Comments
Democrats for Branstad? For Vander Plaats?
The 2002 primary map is very interesting. First, it’s interesting that Vander Plaats did well in NW Iowa, but Gross walked the dog on him in west-central and SW Iowa. What gives there? Also, what of the pocket of deep Vander Plaats love in far SE Iowa?
But the main question I had here was this: Suppose that, right up until the primary, it’s neck and neck between BVP and Branstad. What will primary crossing Democrats do? Vote for BVP because he would be the easier candidate for Culver to beat or vote for Branstad because the prospect of Governor Vander Plaats is too nightmarish to bear? I don’t think their numbers will be too many, but every vote counts.
american007 Sat 16 Jan 4:58 PM
from a short bio of Gross
I learned that he “was born and raised in the small town of Defiance in western Iowa,” the fourth child in a family of ten. Defiance is in Shelby County, and I’ll bet Gross still has tons of friends and relatives in western Iowa.
I have a feeling Branstad’s going to run away with the primary, but if it’s close, I have no clue what crossover Democrats would do. I would never vote in the other party’s primary, so it’s hard for me to get into that mindset.
desmoinesdem Sat 16 Jan 5:44 PM